烟草在线据Daily Markets报道编译　　英国烟草产品制造业的收入在过去5年内每年都下降。在过去的几十年中，吸烟率长期下降，主要原因是人们担心吸烟会引起健康问题。现在，仅有21%的人口吸烟。虽然烟草产品的价格相对稳定，但也有所上涨，因此也导致吸烟率的下降。据市场调查公司IBISWorld行业分析师史蒂文·康奈尔（Steven Connell）称，“价格上涨也致使人们从购买优质品牌转向购买经济品牌”。例如，过滤嘴香烟的购买量减小了，对自卷烟的需求量增长了。

　　政府旨在降低吸烟率的措施，围绕与健康有关的吸烟危害性进行了负面报道，降低了吸烟率。在过去5年中，实施的控烟规定包括把购买卷烟的最低年龄从16岁提高到18岁，在卷烟包装上增加图片健康警语等。未来五年内，预计行业收入每年将下降3.3%，降至88亿英镑。该收入包括占行业收入大约74%的消费税。2012-13年度的行业收入预计下跌5.2%。IBISWorld预测，未来五年内，烟草行业的收入将会继续下降，预计烟草公司的数量在2017-18年度将会减少到只有10家。康奈尔继续说道，“卷烟消费将会继续保持下降趋势，而烟草规定将越来越多，烟草税也将继续上涨。”预计，烟草行业的员工数量每年将会下降3.9%。因此，在截至2017-18的未来五年内，烟草行业收入的将会下降。

　　烟草产品制造行业的市场份额非常集中，在2008年，4家最大的制造商总计约占整个市场份额的97%。主要烟草公司包括帝国烟草、日本烟草以及英美烟草等。

　　评论：

　　人们通常把烟草业归入“夕阳产业”或“衰退产业”，主要的原因是：人们的健康意识增强，以及各国政府的控烟力度加大。一般来说，判断一个产业是否属于“衰退产业”，应该有两个基本标准：一是，市场上对该产业的需求是否在不断减弱，如果对该产业的需求仍然处于增长状态，该产业就不会衰退下去。二是，该产业是否已经过了成熟期，是否有替代产业出现，如果没有替代产业的出现，一个发展成熟的产业也不会真正衰退下去。

　　对于烟草业，我们可以看到，在英、美等发达国家市场，烟草产品的产销量都在下降，而在亚洲、非洲的一些新兴市场，烟草市场的销量却呈增长趋势，并且抵消了成熟市场的销量下降。而且烟草行业一直没有可靠的替代品，毕竟烟草是一种独特的产品，吸烟所带来的愉悦感也很难被其他产品替代。虽然电子卷烟发展势头迅猛，但短期内仍然不会对传统卷烟构成威胁。因此，从全球来看，虽然市场环境非常具有挑战性，但烟草业还远未进入衰退期。

Tobacco Product Manufacturing In The UK Industry Market Research Report Now Updated

　　Tobacco Product Manufacturing industry revenue declined in each of the past five years. There has been a long-term decline in smoking rates over the past few decades, mainly due to health concerns. Now only 21% of the population smokes. Although the price of tobacco products is relatively static, there have been some rises, which have also contributed towards the decline in smoking rates. According to IBISWorld industry analyst Steven Connell, "price rises have also led to a shift away from premium brands towards economy brands". For instance, demand for roll-your-own cigarettes has increased at the expense of filter cigarettes.

　　Government measures designed to reduce smoking rates have added to the negative press surrounding health-related smoking risks and contributed to declining smoking rates. Examples of regulations introduced over the past five years include an increase of the minimum age of purchase from 16 to 18 and the inclusion of pictorial health warnings on tobacco packages. Industry revenue is expected to fall 3.3% per annum over the five years through 2012-13 to reach ￡8.8 billion. This figure includes excise tax, which accounts for approximately 74% of industry revenue. Industry revenue is expected to decline 5.2% in 2012-13. IBISWorld expects the industry will continue to decline over the next five years, with the number of companies operating in the industry expected to fall to just 10 in 2017-18. Connell adds, "cigarette consumption is expected to continue its downward trend, while regulation and taxes on tobacco increase". Employment is expected to decline an annualised 3.9%. Consequently industry revenue is expected to decline over the next five years to 2017-18.

　　The market share concentration in the Tobacco Product Manufacturing industry is very high with the top 4 manufacturers accounting for approximately 97% of the market in 2008. Major companies include Imperial Tobacco, Japan Tobacco and British American Tobacco. Enditem