烟草在线据星报在线报道编译　　据分析人士和烟草业观察家认为，马来西亚实施的管制非法卷烟买卖的新法规预计不会对当地烟草公司的收益产生任何实质性的影响。

　　据艾芬（Affin）投资银行的一份研究报告说，截至2013年年底，马来西亚的非法卷烟贸易水平维持在34.5%，相比之下，2002年的非法卷烟水平为20%。

　　“造成非法贸易活动猖獗的主要原因，是多年来卷烟价格因消费税上提而上涨的缘故。”

　　艾芬投资银行说：“由于烟草公司管理部门即将更新涉及这一新法规行动的成功情况的信息，因此，我们对预期暂时保持不变。”它还补充说，它暂时保持对烟草业做出的“减持”评级。

　　根据《1983年食品法案》对《2004年烟草产品控制法规》进行的修正案于1月1日开始生效。该修正案规定，不仅出售烟盒不带政府规定的健康警语和图片的卷烟是非法行为，而且购买这样的卷烟也属非法行为。

　　根据去年6月通过政府公报发布的修正案，购买这样的卷烟的人就像出售这些卷烟的人一样，可能面临最高10000林吉特的罚款，或高达两年的监禁，或者罚款和监禁并罚。

　　新的规定旨在控制非法卷烟走私进入马来西亚。

　　与此同时，RHB研究院说，尽管这是一项尝试遏制非法卷烟贸易的积极措施，但鉴于法规的执行力度不够，估计这个问题还会继续存在。

　　“最近合法卷烟价格的大幅上涨（14%至17%之间），也无助于这种情况。我们预计2014年烟草业的合法卷烟销量同比将萎缩10%。”

　　一名来自由马来西亚当地的一家银行支持的经纪公司的分析师说，除了法规没有得到正常执行之外，最近的各种补贴合理化行动可能也会进一步增加非法卷烟贸易。

　　“电、燃料和糖等生产成本费用的增加，将会对中低收入人群产生最大影响，而这些人群也是非法卷烟销售者所瞄准的最大人群。”

　　曾经担任马来西亚烟草控制委员会主席的槟城（Penang）消费者保护协会主席K. Koris Atan说，“新法规”实际上已经实施一段时间了，但它无助于遏制非法卷烟贸易的问题。

　　“这些新法规已经作为《食品法案》的组成部分存在很多年了，而且到今天仍在实施，但我们的司法机关从来没有根据法案对任何违法者处以罚款！”

Malaysia: New Rules Not Expected to Affect Earnings of Local Tobacco Companies

　　The new rules governing the buying and selling of illicit cigarettes in the country is not expected to have any material impact on the earnings of local tobacco companies, according to analysts and industry observers.

　　According to a research note by Affin Investment Bank, Malaysia's illicit cigarette trade level stood at 34.5% as at end-2013 compared with 20% in 2002.

　　"The key culprit for the rampant illegal activities was due to an increase in cigarette prices over the years as a result of higher excise duties.

　　"We leave our forecast unchanged for now pending updates from management of the tobacco companies relating to the success of this initiative," said Affin, adding that it was maintaining its "underweight" rating on the tobacco sector for now.

　　Amendments to the Control of Tobacco Product Regulations 2004 under the Food Act 1983, which took effect on Jan 1, stipulate that it is not only illegal to sell cigarettes in packets that do not carry government health warnings and pictures, it is also illegal to buy them.

　　Under the amendments gazetted last June, the buyer, just like the seller, may face a maximum fine of RM10,000, jail of up to two years, or both.

　　The new provisions are aimed at checking smuggling of illegal cigarettes into the country.

　　RHB Research Institute meanwhile said although this was a positive measure in a attempt to curb illicit cigarette trade, it reckons however that the problem will continue to linger given the lack of the enforcement of regulations.

　　"The recent steep revision in legal cigarette prices (between 14% and 17%) is not helping the situation as well. We are forecasting the industry's sales volume of legal cigarettes to contract by 10% year-on-year in 2014."

　　An analyst from a local bank-backed brokerage said other than the lack of proper enforcement of the regulations, the various subsidy rationalisation initiatives recently will likely elevate illicit cigarette trade further.

　　"The higher cost of living from the electricity, fuel and sugar hikes will have the biggest impact on those within the lower-income group, which is also the biggest segment being targeted by illicit cigarette sellers."

　　Penang Consumer Protection Association president K. Koris Atan, who was the former president of the Malaysia Council for Tobacco Control, says that the "new rules" have actually been in place for some time and has not helped to curb the illicit cigarette trade problem.

　　"It's been part of the Food Act for umpteen years and till today, our judiciary has yet to fine anyone under the act!" Enditem