烟草在线据nzherald网站报道编译　　官方文件显示，除了一次查没非法卷烟的重大案件外，烟草行业预测提税培育了黑市的预言似乎从未实现。

　　海关总署称在过去的三年里“没有截获大量的非法卷烟”。尽管行业断言，加紧烟草控制将使非法市场增长。

　　自从毛利事务特别委员会在2010年开展调查以来，该行业一直对如提税和平装等政策发出这些警告，在这段时间里，关于新西兰的烟草非法市场，英美烟草发布了一份委托报告《走出阴影》。

　　《先驱报》根据《信息法》获得的海关2010年的总结显示，截获的烟草量，包括非法种植的当地烟叶，被认为有可能增加，因为从当年开始增税，“……然而尽管消费税提高了，但是事实并非如此”。

　　但是海关的确截获了4.8吨未加工的烟草，市场价值估计为1公斤500美元，以及260万美元的未付税款。

　　随着2010年在过去重要的种烟区摩图伊卡查获非法烟草后，在6月，两名男子因非法生产烟草而被罚款。

　　海关称，烟草和卷烟的非法贸易“通常被局限于截获超过限额的一到两条卷烟——到达新西兰的旅客携带和通过邮件运输的”。

　　有证据显示个人组织的旅游团或机组成员进口免税配额或更多的产品，然后向当地零售商销售产品，但是这些贸易“被认为是微不足道的”。

　　通过一个普通手机号码关联的不同地址“有组织地”进口卷烟——但是这被认为是无关紧要的，从商船船员那里截获的超限额的卷烟也同样无关紧要。

　　在一份有关最新增税提案的报告中，财政部表示，大规模烟草走私和非法的当地制造都比较低。

　　英美烟草公司发言人尼古拉斯·布斯说，非法烟草贸易是一个“非常现实的问题”，政府每年会损失了大约4000万美元的未付税款。

　　他说，平装会导致非法烟草贸易增加。

　　但是吸烟与健康行动组织称，非法贸易量很小。其主管Ben Youdan表示，该行业的指控是“公关策略——这是最糟糕的危言耸听”。

　　评论：

　　对合法烟草产品的提税到底能否导致非法烟草贸易的激增，这似乎很难找到确凿的证据来证明两者之间的关联程度，但是烟草业一直坚称提税将使非法市场增长，因为提税会使合法产品价格提高，从而促使部分烟民转向较便宜的走私产品。其实，美国、加拿大、德国等国家的一些研究机构都曾对这个问题做过研究，在提税之后，市场上未纳税卷烟的比例都会有所提高，因此，许多国家对烟草提税都持谨慎态度。新西兰的控烟情况虽然令人欣慰，但是烟草业的警告也并非危言耸听，政策制定者不能一味的加紧控烟，而忽略了可能带来的负作用。

New Zealand: Black Market Tobacco Claim Unfounded, Says Customs

　　The tobacco industry's predictions of a black market fostered by tax rises seem to have been unfulfilled, apart from one significant seizure, official papers indicate.

　　The Customs Service says "no significant seizures of cigarettes" were made in the past three years.

　　This is despite industry assertions that tightening the screws on tobacco control will foster an illicit market.

　　The industry has been issuing these warnings about policies such as tax increases and plain packaging since the Maori affairs select committee tobacco inquiry in 2010, at which time British American Tobacco released a report it had commissioned, "Out of the Shadows", on New Zealand's illicit tobacco market.

　　Customs says in a summary of 2010, obtained by the Herald under the Official Information Act, that an increase in tobacco seizures, including illicitly grown local leaf, was identified as a possibility because of the tax rises that began that year, "... however despite the increases in excise duty this has not been the case".

　　But Customs did seize 4.8 tonnes of unprocessed tobacco with an estimated market value of $500 a kilogram and an unpaid tax value of $2.6 million.

　　Two men were fined in June in relation to unlawfully manufacturing tobacco, following the 2010 seizure in Motueka, formerly an important growing area for the plant.

　　Customs says the illicit trade in tobacco and cigarettes "was generally confined to intercepts of one to two cartons - over concession - from passengers arriving into New Zealand and via the mail stream".

　　There was evidence of individuals organising tourist groups or aircrew to import their full duty-free quota or more, then selling the products to local retailers but the trade "is not considered significant".

　　There had been "organised" imports of cigarettes to various addresses linked through a common mobile number - but this was considered insignificant, as were over-quota amounts intercepted from crew members of commercial ships.

　　In a report on the latest tax-rise proposals, the Treasury said the risks of large-scale tobacco smuggling and illicit local manufacturing were comparatively low.

　　British American Tobacco spokesman Nicholas Booth said the illegal tobacco trade was a "very real issue" which cost the Government around $40 million a year in unpaid tax.

　　Plain packaging would cause the illegal tobacco trade to grow, he said.

　　But Action on Smoking and Health said the illicit trade was small. Its director, Ben Youdan, said the industry's claims were "PR spin - it's the worst kind of scaremongering". Enditem